2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11
1. FC MagdeburgvFC St. Pauli
1. FC Magdeburg
FC St. Pauli·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| 1. / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, 1. FC Magdeburg down the side and FC St. Pauli across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- 1. FC Magdeburg41% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes 1. FC Magdeburg the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
1. FC Magdeburg
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
FC St. Pauli
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
1. FC MagdeburgDWLWD
- Yesterday · A v SV Darmstadt 98 1–1
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Karlsruher SC 6–1
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Dynamo Dresden 0–2
- Sat 10 Oct · H v Hannover 96 3–0
- Fri 18 Sep · A v SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–1
FC St. PauliDDWDW
- Fri 23 Oct · A v SV Darmstadt 98 0–0
- Sat 17 Oct · A v Hannover 96 1–1
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Karlsruher SC 2–0
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Energie Cottbus 1–1
- Sat 12 Sep · H v VfL Wolfsburg 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Magdeburg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of 1. FC Magdeburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of 1. FC Magdeburg's last 5.
- 1. FC Magdeburg kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- FC St. Pauli have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC St. Pauli have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 0 of FC St. Pauli's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of FC St. Pauli's last 5.
- FC St. Pauli kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
1. FC Magdeburg
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
FC St. Pauli
Rest: 16 days · 1 match in 14d
Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
- Our model makes 1. FC Magdeburg the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.