2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Dynamo DresdenvHertha Berlin
Dynamo Dresden
Hertha Berlin·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 2-1 (8%), 1-0 (8%). Dynamo Dresden and Hertha Berlin finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Dyn / Her | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Dynamo Dresden down the side and Hertha Berlin across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 44%.
What we think
- Dynamo Dresden38% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 69% against a market price of 56% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.0 goals.
Our forecast makes Dynamo Dresden the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Hertha Berlin the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 66% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Hertha Berlin a 39% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 24% draw · 39% away
Now: 37% home · 24% draw · 39% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Dynamo Dresden
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Hertha Berlin
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Dynamo DresdenDLLWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Eintracht Braunschweig 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Vfl Bochum 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v FC Heidenheim 3–5
- Sun 16 Aug · H v SV Darmstadt 98 1–0
- Sun 9 Aug · A v 1. FC Nürnberg 0–3
Hertha BerlinWWWWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v VfL Osnabrück 3–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Eintracht Braunschweig 5–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v FC Heidenheim 4–1
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Vfl Bochum 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Dynamo Dresden have won 1 of their last 5.
- Dynamo Dresden have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Dynamo Dresden's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Dynamo Dresden's last 5.
- Dynamo Dresden kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Hertha Berlin have won 5 of their last 5.
- Hertha Berlin have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Hertha Berlin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Hertha Berlin's last 5.
- Hertha Berlin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Dynamo Dresden
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Hertha Berlin
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden · Referee: Christian Dingert, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha Berlin?
- Our model makes Dynamo Dresden the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market instead favours Hertha Berlin at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha Berlin?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha Berlin?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha Berlin?
- Dynamo Dresden line up in a 4-2-3-1, Hertha Berlin in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.