2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11
Dynamo DresdenvSpVgg Greuther Furth
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Furth·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Furth finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Dyn / SpV | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Dynamo Dresden down the side and SpVgg Greuther Furth across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Dynamo Dresden48% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Dynamo Dresden the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Dynamo Dresden
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
SpVgg Greuther Furth
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Dynamo DresdenLWDLD
- Sun 25 Oct · A v Holstein Kiel 0–3(xG 2.0–1.4)
- Sun 18 Oct · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 2–0
- Sat 10 Oct · A v VfL Osnabrück 1–1
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Hertha Berlin 1–2
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Eintracht Braunschweig 2–2
SpVgg Greuther FurthLWLDD
- Sun 25 Oct · A v VfL Osnabrück 0–3(xG 0.6–2.5)
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Eintracht Braunschweig 2–0
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Hertha Berlin 1–2
- Fri 18 Sep · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 1–1
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Vfl Bochum 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Dynamo Dresden have won 1 of their last 5.
- Dynamo Dresden have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Dynamo Dresden's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Dynamo Dresden's last 5.
- Dynamo Dresden kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- SpVgg Greuther Furth have won 1 of their last 5.
- SpVgg Greuther Furth have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of SpVgg Greuther Furth's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of SpVgg Greuther Furth's last 5.
- SpVgg Greuther Furth kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Dynamo Dresden
Rest: 12 days · 2 matches in 14d
SpVgg Greuther Furth
Rest: 12 days · 2 matches in 14d
Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Furth?
- Our model makes Dynamo Dresden the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Furth?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Furth?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.