2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10

FC St. Pauliv1. FC Nürnberg

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1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives FC St. Pauli a 44% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

FC St. PauliModel pendingMarket 44%
FC St. Pauli:, no forecast published, market 44%

Matches we've forecast today

Here are some matches from today's board that have our model forecasts:

View all today's forecasts →

2Market

Open: 44% home · 26% draw · 30% away

Now: 44% home · 26% draw · 30% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs44%
Draw—vs26%
Away—vs30%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs57%
Under 2.5—vs43%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs80%
Under 1.5—vs20%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs35%
Under 3.5—vs65%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs62%
No—vs38%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

FC St. Pauli

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

1. FC Nürnberg

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

FC St. PauliDDWDW

  • Fri 23 Oct · A v SV Darmstadt 98 0–0
  • Sat 17 Oct · A v Hannover 96 1–1
  • Sun 11 Oct · H v Karlsruher SC 2–0
  • Sun 20 Sep · A v Energie Cottbus 1–1
  • Sat 12 Sep · H v VfL Wolfsburg 1–0

1. FC NürnbergLDDWW

  • Sat 24 Oct · H v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–1
  • Fri 16 Oct · A v Energie Cottbus 1–1
  • Sat 10 Oct · H v VfL Wolfsburg 4–4
  • Sat 19 Sep · A v Karlsruher SC 1–0
  • Fri 11 Sep · H v Hannover 96 2–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

FC St. Pauli
  • FC St. Pauli have won 2 of their last 5.
  • FC St. Pauli have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 0 of FC St. Pauli's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of FC St. Pauli's last 5.
  • FC St. Pauli kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
1. FC Nürnberg
  • 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2 of their last 5.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 2 of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 5.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

FC St. Pauli

Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d

1. FC Nürnberg

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg · Referee: Robert Hartmann

8Red flags