2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Hannover 96vVfl Bochum
Hannover 96
Vfl Bochum·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Hannover 96 and Vfl Bochum finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Han / Vfl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Hannover 96 down the side and Vfl Bochum across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 43%.
What we think
- Hannover 9647% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 69% against a market price of 57% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 82% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.1 goals.
Our forecast makes Hannover 96 the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 65% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Hannover 96 a 53% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 23% draw · 24% away
Now: 53% home · 23% draw · 24% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Hannover 96
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Vfl Bochum
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Hannover 96LDWLL
- Fri 11 Sep · A v 1. FC Nürnberg 1–2
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Karlsruher SC 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v SV Darmstadt 98 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v VfL Wolfsburg 0–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Energie Cottbus 1–3
Vfl BochumDWLWL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Dynamo Dresden 2–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v VfL Osnabrück 0–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0
- Fri 7 Aug · H v Hertha Berlin 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Hannover 96 have won 1 of their last 5.
- Hannover 96 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Hannover 96's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Hannover 96's last 5.
- Hannover 96 kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Vfl Bochum have won 2 of their last 5.
- Vfl Bochum have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Vfl Bochum's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Vfl Bochum's last 5.
- Vfl Bochum kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Hannover 96
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Vfl Bochum
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover · Referee: Timo Gansloweit, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Hannover 96 vs Vfl Bochum?
- Our model makes Hannover 96 the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- How many goals are expected in Hannover 96 vs Vfl Bochum?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs Vfl Bochum?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.