2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Holstein KielvVfL Osnabrück
Holstein Kiel
VfL Osnabrück·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Hol / VfL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Holstein Kiel down the side and VfL Osnabrück across. These 96.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 82% against 84%.
What we think
- Holstein Kiel68% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Holstein Kiel
Best price 1.80 at BetanoThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 68% against a market price of 55% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Our forecast makes Holstein Kiel the most likely of the three results, at 68% (we would not be surprised by anything from 57% to 77%). Most likely is not likely: at 68% this result does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 55%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, which is what the market has it at too (63%).
For comparison, the market gives Holstein Kiel a 55% chance. Our model makes it 68%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 23% draw · 23% away
Now: 55% home · 23% draw · 22% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Holstein Kiel
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Holstein Kiel
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
VfL Osnabrück
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Holstein KielLDLDD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v FC Heidenheim 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v 1. FC Nürnberg 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v 1. FC Magdeburg 0–2
- Fri 14 Aug · H v FC St. Pauli 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · A v SV Darmstadt 98 2–2
VfL OsnabrückLWWLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Hertha Berlin 1–3
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Eintracht Braunschweig 3–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Vfl Bochum 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 0–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v FC Heidenheim 3–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Holstein Kiel have won 0 of their last 5.
- Holstein Kiel have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Holstein Kiel's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Holstein Kiel's last 5.
- Holstein Kiel kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- VfL Osnabrück have won 2 of their last 5.
- VfL Osnabrück have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of VfL Osnabrück's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of VfL Osnabrück's last 5.
- VfL Osnabrück kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Holstein Kiel
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
VfL Osnabrück
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Holstein-Stadion, Kiel · Referee: Tom Bauer, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück?
- Our model makes Holstein Kiel the most likely result at 68%. Most likely is not likely — at 68% it does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.
- How many goals are expected in Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück?
- Holstein Kiel line up in a 4-1-4-1, VfL Osnabrück in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.