2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Karlsruher SCv1. FC Nürnberg
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Karlsruher SC and 1. FC Nürnberg finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Kar / 1. | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Karlsruher SC down the side and 1. FC Nürnberg across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 50%.
What we think
- Karlsruher SC48% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 50% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.8 goals.
Our forecast makes Karlsruher SC the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes 1. FC Nürnberg the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 72% — a 11 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 44% chance. Our model makes it 29%.
2Market
Open: 32% home · 24% draw · 44% away
Now: 33% home · 23% draw · 44% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Karlsruher SC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
1. FC Nürnberg
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Karlsruher SCLDLDW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Energie Cottbus 0–3
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Hannover 96 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v VfL Wolfsburg 2–5
- Sat 15 Aug · A v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–0
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Arminia Bielefeld 2–1
1. FC NürnbergWDWWW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Hannover 96 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Holstein Kiel 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Arminia Bielefeld 4–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v SpVgg Greuther Furth 4–2
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Dynamo Dresden 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Karlsruher SC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Karlsruher SC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Karlsruher SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Karlsruher SC's last 5.
- Karlsruher SC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Nürnberg have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 5.
- 1. FC Nürnberg kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Karlsruher SC
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
1. FC Nürnberg
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe · Referee: Timo Gansloweit, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
- Our model makes Karlsruher SC the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market instead favours 1. FC Nürnberg at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
- Karlsruher SC line up in a 4-4-2, 1. FC Nürnberg in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.