2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5
Karlsruher SCvEnergie Cottbus
Karlsruher SC
Energie Cottbus·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Karlsruher SC and Energie Cottbus finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Kar / Ene | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Karlsruher SC down the side and Energie Cottbus across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 51%.
What we think
- Energie Cottbus41% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Energie Cottbus the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 21% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Karlsruher SC the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 27%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 71% — a 13 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Karlsruher SC a 50% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 56% home · 22% draw · 23% away
Now: 50% home · 23% draw · 27% away
Moved −6pp — the market moved away from Karlsruher SC
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Karlsruher SC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Energie Cottbus
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Karlsruher SCDLDW
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Hannover 96 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v VfL Wolfsburg 2–5
- Sat 15 Aug · A v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–0
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Arminia Bielefeld 2–1
Energie CottbusDLLW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v VfL Wolfsburg 4–4
- Sat 29 Aug · H v SpVgg Greuther Furth 3–4
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Arminia Bielefeld 0–3
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Hannover 96 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Karlsruher SC have won 1 of their last 4.
- Karlsruher SC have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Karlsruher SC's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Karlsruher SC's last 4.
- Karlsruher SC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Energie Cottbus have won 1 of their last 4.
- Energie Cottbus have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 4 of Energie Cottbus's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Energie Cottbus's last 4.
- Energie Cottbus kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Karlsruher SC
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Energie Cottbus
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe · Referee: Robert Hartmann, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus?
- Our model makes Energie Cottbus the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Karlsruher SC at 50%.
- How many goals are expected in Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus?
- Karlsruher SC line up in a 4-2-3-1, Energie Cottbus in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.