2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
SpVgg Greuther Furthv1. FC Magdeburg
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1. FC Magdeburg·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). SpVgg Greuther Furth and 1. FC Magdeburg finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| SpV / 1. | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, SpVgg Greuther Furth down the side and 1. FC Magdeburg across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 43%.
What we think
- SpVgg Greuther Furth41% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes SpVgg Greuther Furth the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes 1. FC Magdeburg the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 65% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 43% chance. Our model makes it 35%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 25% draw · 42% away
Now: 32% home · 25% draw · 43% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from SpVgg Greuther Furth
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
SpVgg Greuther Furth
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
1. FC Magdeburg
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SpVgg Greuther FurthDLWLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Vfl Bochum 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v FC Heidenheim 0–1(xG 0.6–0.9)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Energie Cottbus 4–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v 1. FC Nürnberg 2–4
- Sun 9 Aug · A v FC St. Pauli 1–1
1. FC MagdeburgWLWWL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Hertha Berlin 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Holstein Kiel 2–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v VfL Osnabrück 3–0
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Eintracht Braunschweig 1–6
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- SpVgg Greuther Furth have won 1 of their last 5.
- SpVgg Greuther Furth have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of SpVgg Greuther Furth's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of SpVgg Greuther Furth's last 5.
- SpVgg Greuther Furth kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Magdeburg have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of 1. FC Magdeburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of 1. FC Magdeburg's last 5.
- 1. FC Magdeburg kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
SpVgg Greuther Furth
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
1. FC Magdeburg
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth · Referee: Cristian Ballweg, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win SpVgg Greuther Furth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
- Our model makes SpVgg Greuther Furth the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours 1. FC Magdeburg at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in SpVgg Greuther Furth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Furth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for SpVgg Greuther Furth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
- SpVgg Greuther Furth line up in a 4-3-3, 1. FC Magdeburg in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.