2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10

SpVgg Greuther FurthvHolstein Kiel

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1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Holstein Kiel a 38% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Holstein KielModel pendingMarket 38%
Holstein Kiel:, no forecast published, market 38%

Matches we've forecast today

Here are some matches from today's board that have our model forecasts:

View all today's forecasts →

2Market

Open: 37% home · 25% draw · 38% away

Now: 37% home · 25% draw · 38% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs37%
Draw—vs25%
Away—vs38%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs61%
Under 2.5—vs39%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs82%
Under 1.5—vs18%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs39%
Under 3.5—vs61%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs65%
No—vs35%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

SpVgg Greuther Furth

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Holstein Kiel

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

SpVgg Greuther FurthLWLDD

  • Sun 25 Oct · A v VfL Osnabrück 0–3
  • Sat 17 Oct · H v Eintracht Braunschweig 2–0
  • Sun 11 Oct · A v Hertha Berlin 1–2
  • Fri 18 Sep · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 1–1
  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Vfl Bochum 1–1

Holstein KielWDLDL

  • Sun 25 Oct · H v Dynamo Dresden 3–0
  • Fri 16 Oct · H v Hertha Berlin 0–0
  • Fri 9 Oct · A v Eintracht Braunschweig 0–1
  • Sat 19 Sep · H v VfL Osnabrück 1–1
  • Sun 13 Sep · A v FC Heidenheim 0–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

SpVgg Greuther Furth
  • SpVgg Greuther Furth have won 1 of their last 5.
  • SpVgg Greuther Furth have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 2 of SpVgg Greuther Furth's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of SpVgg Greuther Furth's last 5.
  • SpVgg Greuther Furth kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Holstein Kiel
  • Holstein Kiel have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Holstein Kiel have scored in 2 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Holstein Kiel's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Holstein Kiel's last 5.
  • Holstein Kiel kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

SpVgg Greuther Furth

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Holstein Kiel

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth · Referee: Lars Erbst

8Red flags