2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11
Vfl BochumvKarlsruher SC
Vfl Bochum
Karlsruher SC·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%). Vfl Bochum and Karlsruher SC finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Vfl / Kar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Vfl Bochum down the side and Karlsruher SC across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Vfl Bochum47% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Vfl Bochum the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vfl Bochum
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Karlsruher SC
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Vfl BochumWDLLL
- Fri 30 Oct · A v Energie Cottbus 2–1(xG 1.3–1.4)
- Fri 23 Oct · H v VfL Wolfsburg 1–1
- Sat 17 Oct · A v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–2
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Arminia Bielefeld 0–1
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Hannover 96 1–2
Karlsruher SCWLWLL
- Yesterday · H v FC Heidenheim 2–1
- Sat 24 Oct · A v 1. FC Magdeburg 1–6
- Sun 18 Oct · H v SV Darmstadt 98 4–0
- Sun 11 Oct · A v FC St. Pauli 0–2
- Sat 19 Sep · H v 1. FC Nürnberg 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vfl Bochum have won 1 of their last 5.
- Vfl Bochum have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Vfl Bochum's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Vfl Bochum's last 5.
- Vfl Bochum kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Karlsruher SC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Karlsruher SC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Karlsruher SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Karlsruher SC's last 5.
- Karlsruher SC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Vfl Bochum
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Karlsruher SC
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Vfl Bochum vs Karlsruher SC?
- Our model makes Vfl Bochum the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Vfl Bochum vs Karlsruher SC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Vfl Bochum vs Karlsruher SC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.