2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5
VfL OsnabrückvHertha Berlin
VfL Osnabrück
Hertha Berlin·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). VfL Osnabrück and Hertha Berlin finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| VfL / Her | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, VfL Osnabrück down the side and Hertha Berlin across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 41%.
What we think
- Hertha Berlin51% · Match result
- Over 2.556% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 67% against a market price of 59% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 65% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 9 matches between them averaged 3.9 goals.
Our forecast makes Hertha Berlin the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, against the market’s 63% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Hertha Berlin a 46% chance. Our model makes it 51%.
2Market
Open: 29% home · 25% draw · 46% away
Now: 29% home · 25% draw · 46% away
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
VfL Osnabrück
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Hertha Berlin
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VfL OsnabrückWWLL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Eintracht Braunschweig 3–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Vfl Bochum 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 0–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v FC Heidenheim 3–4
Hertha BerlinWWWWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Eintracht Braunschweig 5–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v FC Heidenheim 4–1
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Vfl Bochum 1–0
- Sat 27 May · A v VfL Wolfsburg 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- VfL Osnabrück have won 2 of their last 4.
- VfL Osnabrück have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of VfL Osnabrück's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of VfL Osnabrück's last 4.
- VfL Osnabrück kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Hertha Berlin have won 5 of their last 5.
- Hertha Berlin have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Hertha Berlin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Hertha Berlin's last 5.
- Hertha Berlin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
VfL Osnabrück
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Hertha Berlin
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Bremer Brücke, Osnabruck · Referee: Felix Weller, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha Berlin?
- Our model makes Hertha Berlin the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- How many goals are expected in VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha Berlin?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
- Will both teams score in VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha Berlin?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha Berlin?
- VfL Osnabrück line up in a 3-4-2-1, Hertha Berlin in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.