2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

VfL OsnabrückvHertha Berlin

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1Headline

We expect

1–21.2–1.8 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). VfL Osnabrück and Hertha Berlin finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, VfL Osnabrück goals down the side, Hertha Berlin across
VfL / Her012345
0698520.8
161110630.9
2466310.5
312210.60.2
40.40.70.60.40.20.1
50.10.20.10.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, VfL Osnabrück down the side and Hertha Berlin across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 79%, market 83%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 56%, market 61%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 33%, market 39%

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 39%.

What we think

  • Hertha Berlin51% · Match result
  • Over 2.556% · Goals
  • Yes56% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Hertha Berlin the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.

Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, against the market’s 61% — a 5 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives Hertha Berlin a 46% chance. Our model makes it 51%.

Hertha BerlinModel 51% [39%–63%]Market 46%
Hertha Berlin:, our forecast 51%, between 39% and 63%, market 46%

2Market

Open: 29% home · 25% draw · 46% away

Now: 29% home · 25% draw · 46% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home24%vs29%−5pp
Draw24%vs25%−1pp
Away51%vs46%+5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.556%vs61%−5pp
Under 2.544%vs39%+5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs83%−4pp
Under 1.521%vs17%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.533%vs39%−6pp
Under 3.567%vs61%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs64%−8pp
No44%vs36%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

VfL Osnabrück

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Hertha Berlin

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

VfL OsnabrückWWLL

  • Sun 6 Sep · H v Eintracht Braunschweig 3–1
  • Fri 28 Aug · A v Vfl Bochum 1–0
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 0–3
  • Sat 8 Aug · A v FC Heidenheim 3–4

Hertha BerlinWWWWW

  • Sun 6 Sep · H v 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1
  • Fri 28 Aug · A v Eintracht Braunschweig 5–3
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v FC Heidenheim 4–1
  • Fri 7 Aug · A v Vfl Bochum 1–0
  • Sat 27 May · A v VfL Wolfsburg 2–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

VfL Osnabrück
  • VfL Osnabrück have won 2 of their last 4.
  • VfL Osnabrück have scored in 3 of their last 4.
  • 3 of VfL Osnabrück's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of VfL Osnabrück's last 4.
  • VfL Osnabrück kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
Hertha Berlin
  • Hertha Berlin have won 5 of their last 5.
  • Hertha Berlin have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Hertha Berlin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Hertha Berlin's last 5.
  • Hertha Berlin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

VfL Osnabrück

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Hertha Berlin

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Venue unconfirmed

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha Berlin?
Our model makes Hertha Berlin the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
How many goals are expected in VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha Berlin?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
Will both teams score in VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha Berlin?
Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.