2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
VfL WolfsburgvSV Darmstadt 98
VfL Wolfsburg
SV Darmstadt 98·
5 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). VfL Wolfsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| VfL / SV | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, VfL Wolfsburg down the side and SV Darmstadt 98 across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 46%.
What we think
- VfL Wolfsburg56% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 64% against a market price of 54% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.9 goals.
- Their last 2 meetings averaged 2.0 goals.
- The price has moved 4.3% towards VfL Wolfsburg since it opened.
Our forecast makes VfL Wolfsburg the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 65%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 67% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives VfL Wolfsburg a 65% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 61% home · 21% draw · 18% away
Now: 65% home · 19% draw · 16% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards VfL Wolfsburg
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
SV Darmstadt 98
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VfL WolfsburgLDWWD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v FC St. Pauli 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Energie Cottbus 4–4
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Karlsruher SC 5–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Hannover 96 1–0
- Sat 8 Aug · H v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–0
SV Darmstadt 98WLLLD
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Arminia Bielefeld 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Hannover 96 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Dynamo Dresden 0–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Holstein Kiel 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- VfL Wolfsburg have won 2 of their last 5.
- VfL Wolfsburg have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of VfL Wolfsburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of VfL Wolfsburg's last 5.
- VfL Wolfsburg kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1 of their last 5.
- SV Darmstadt 98 have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of SV Darmstadt 98's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of SV Darmstadt 98's last 5.
- SV Darmstadt 98 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 0 drawn.
- VfL Wolfsburg W–D–L
- 2–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 0 of 2
- VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 SV Darmstadt 98
- SV Darmstadt 98 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg
7Context
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
SV Darmstadt 98
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Wolfsburg · Referee: Martin Petersen, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
- Our model makes VfL Wolfsburg the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 65%.
- How many goals are expected in VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
- VfL Wolfsburg line up in a 4-3-3, SV Darmstadt 98 in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
- In their last 2 meetings, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 0.