Super League 1 · Regular Season - 5
Aris ThessalonikisvIraklis 1908
Aris Thessalonikis
Iraklis 1908·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (16%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 finish on some other score 59% of the time.
| Ari / Ira | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Aris Thessalonikis down the side and Iraklis 1908 across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Aris Thessalonikis51% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Aris Thessalonikis the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Aris Thessalonikis
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Iraklis 1908
Confirmed · 5-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Aris ThessalonikisLLWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v PAOK 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v AEK Athens FC 0–5
- Sun 30 Aug · H v OFI 2–1
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Kalamata 3–2
Iraklis 1908DWDL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Atromitos 1–1
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Asteras Tripolis 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Volos NFC 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · A v AEK Athens FC 0–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Aris Thessalonikis have won 2 of their last 4.
- Aris Thessalonikis have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 3 of Aris Thessalonikis's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Aris Thessalonikis's last 4.
- Aris Thessalonikis kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Iraklis 1908 have won 1 of their last 4.
- Iraklis 1908 have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 1 of Iraklis 1908's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Iraklis 1908's last 4.
- Iraklis 1908 kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Aris Thessalonikis
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Iraklis 1908
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Thessaloniki · Referee: Christos Vergetis, Greece
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
- Our model makes Aris Thessalonikis the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, against 51% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
- Aris Thessalonikis line up in a 4-2-3-1, Iraklis 1908 in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.