Super League 1 · Regular Season - 4
Asteras TripolisvAEK Athens FC
Asteras Tripolis
AEK Athens FC·
1Headline
We expect
0–10.6–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (16%), then 0-2 (14%), 1-1 (10%). Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC finish on some other score 60% of the time.
| Ast / AEK | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Asteras Tripolis down the side and AEK Athens FC across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- AEK Athens FC65% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- No53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes AEK Athens FC the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 54% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Asteras Tripolis
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
AEK Athens FC
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Asteras TripolisLLL
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Iraklis 1908 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Panetolikos 1–3
AEK Athens FCWDW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Aris Thessalonikis 5–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Kifisia 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Iraklis 1908 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Asteras Tripolis have won 0 of their last 3.
- Asteras Tripolis have scored in 1 of their last 3.
- 1 of Asteras Tripolis's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Asteras Tripolis's last 3.
- Asteras Tripolis kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- AEK Athens FC have won 2 of their last 3.
- AEK Athens FC have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 2 of AEK Athens FC's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of AEK Athens FC's last 3.
- AEK Athens FC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Asteras Tripolis
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
AEK Athens FC
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
- Our model makes AEK Athens FC the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance, against 53% that at least one side is kept out.