Super League 1 · Regular Season - 4
PanathinaikosvPanetolikos
Panathinaikos
Panetolikos·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.8–0.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (17%), then 2-0 (15%), 1-1 (10%). Panathinaikos and Panetolikos finish on some other score 58% of the time.
| Pan / Pan | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Panathinaikos down the side and Panetolikos across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 48% against 60%.
What we think
- Panathinaikos67% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- No54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 74% against a market price of 63% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 6 matches between them averaged 3.0 goals, and 2.0 expected across the 1 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes Panathinaikos the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 58% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 78%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, against the market’s 60% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Panathinaikos a 78% chance. Our model makes it 67%.
2Market
Open: 78% home · 15% draw · 7% away
Now: 78% home · 15% draw · 7% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Panathinaikos
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Panetolikos
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PanathinaikosWWW
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Kifisia 3–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v PAOK 3–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Levadiakos 2–0
PanetolikosWWW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Levadiakos 2–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Kalamata 2–0
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Asteras Tripolis 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Panathinaikos have won 3 of their last 3.
- Panathinaikos have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 2 of Panathinaikos's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Panathinaikos's last 3.
- Panathinaikos kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.
- Panetolikos have won 3 of their last 3.
- Panetolikos have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 1 of Panetolikos's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Panetolikos's last 3.
- Panetolikos kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Panathinaikos
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Panetolikos
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium, Athens · Referee: Stavros Tsimenteridis, Greece
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos?
- Our model makes Panathinaikos the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 78%.
- How many goals are expected in Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 46% chance, against 54% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos?
- Panathinaikos line up in a 4-2-3-1, Panetolikos in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.