Serie A · Regular Season - 9
AC MilanvBologna
AC Milan
Bologna·
2 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.
We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:
- • Market prices and price movement
- • Head-to-head record and recent form
- • Lineups and injuries where available
- • Venue, kickoff time, and context
Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.
For comparison, the market gives AC Milan a 57% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.
Matches we've forecast today
Here are some matches from today's board that have our model forecasts:
2Market
Open: 60% home · 24% draw · 17% away
Now: 57% home · 24% draw · 19% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from AC Milan
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
AC Milan
Lineup not yet confirmed
- F. Tomori — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Gabbia — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Gimenez — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Rabiot — out (Calf Injury)
- D. Moreira — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Gila — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Loftus-Cheek — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Chukwueze — out (Hip Injury)
- A. Saelemaekers — out (Ankle Injury)
- C. Nkunku — out (Inactive)
- R. Leao — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Fofana — out (Transfer negotiations)
Bologna
Lineup not yet confirmed
- R. Orsolini — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Enem — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- L. De Silvestri — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Piccoli — out (Hamstring Injury)
- J. Odgaard — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Mbangula — out (Injury)
- E. Holm — out (Thigh Injury)
- N. Zortea — out (Hip Injury)
- A. Dovbyk — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rowe — out (Inactive)
- O. El Azzouzi — out (Thigh Injury)
- N. Casale — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AC MilanWWDWD
- Sun 25 Oct · A v Udinese 2–0(xG 3.6–0.6)
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Atalanta 3–2
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Sassuolo 1–1
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Lecce 3–0(xG 2.2–0.2)
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Lazio 2–2(xG 1.1–2.0)
BolognaWLWDL
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Cagliari 2–0
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Inter 1–3
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Lecce 2–1
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Torino 1–1(xG 0.6–0.9)
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Napoli 0–1(xG 0.3–1.8)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- AC Milan have won 3 of their last 5.
- AC Milan have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of AC Milan's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of AC Milan's last 5.
- AC Milan kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Bologna have won 2 of their last 5.
- Bologna have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Bologna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Bologna's last 5.
- Bologna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, AC Milan have won 6, Bologna 1, with 3 drawn.
- AC Milan W–D–L
- 6–3–1
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- Bologna 0–3 AC Milan
- AC Milan 1–0 Bologna
- AC Milan 3–1 Bologna
- Bologna 2–1 AC Milan
- AC Milan 2–2 Bologna
- Bologna 0–2 AC Milan
- Bologna 1–1 AC Milan
- AC Milan 2–0 Bologna
- AC Milan 0–0 Bologna
- Bologna 2–4 AC Milan
7Context
AC Milan
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bologna
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · Referee: J. L. Sacchi
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- What is the team news for AC Milan vs Bologna?
- AC Milan's reported absences and doubts include F. Tomori, M. Gabbia, S. Gimenez, A. Rabiot and 8 others. Bologna's include R. Orsolini, J. Enem, L. De Silvestri, R. Piccoli and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
- In their last 10 meetings, AC Milan have won 6, Bologna 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.