Serie B · Regular Season - 5
AscolivAvellino
Ascoli
Avellino·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Ascoli and Avellino finish on some other score 61% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Asc / Ave | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Ascoli down the side and Avellino across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 24% against 23%.
What we think
- Ascoli48% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Ascoli the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, which is what the market has it at too (46%).
For comparison, the market gives Ascoli a 45% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 29% draw · 26% away
Now: 45% home · 29% draw · 26% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Ascoli
Confirmed · 3-5-2
No reported absences.
Avellino
Confirmed · 4-3-1-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AscoliLWDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Padova 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Benevento 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Carrarese 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Hellas Verona 2–1
AvellinoDWWL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Palermo 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Modena 1–0(xG 0.4–2.0)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Vicenza Virtus 3–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Arezzo 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Ascoli have won 2 of their last 4.
- Ascoli have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 1 of Ascoli's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Ascoli's last 4.
- Ascoli kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Avellino have won 2 of their last 4.
- Avellino have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 2 of Avellino's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Avellino's last 4.
- Avellino kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Ascoli
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Avellino
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno · Referee: Matteo Marchetti, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Ascoli vs Avellino?
- Our model makes Ascoli the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- How many goals are expected in Ascoli vs Avellino?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Avellino?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Ascoli vs Avellino?
- Ascoli line up in a 3-5-2, Avellino in a 4-3-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.