Serie B · Regular Season - 5
Juve StabiavCesena
Juve Stabia
Cesena·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (10%). Juve Stabia and Cesena finish on some other score 63% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Juv / Ces | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Juve Stabia down the side and Cesena across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 47% against 51%.
What we think
- Juve Stabia47% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Juve Stabia the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, against the market’s 51% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Juve Stabia a 43% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 29% draw · 30% away
Now: 43% home · 28% draw · 29% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Juve Stabia
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Juve Stabia
Confirmed · 3-5-1-1
No reported absences.
Cesena
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Juve StabiaDLWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Vicenza Virtus 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Pisa 0–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sampdoria 2–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Palermo 0–1
CesenaDDWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Cremonese 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Mantova 1–1(xG 1.3–0.4)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Virtus Entella 2–1
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sampdoria 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Juve Stabia have won 1 of their last 4.
- Juve Stabia have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 2 of Juve Stabia's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Juve Stabia's last 4.
- Juve Stabia kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Cesena have won 1 of their last 4.
- Cesena have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 2 of Cesena's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Cesena's last 4.
- Cesena kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Juve Stabia
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Cesena
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Romeo Menti, Castellammare di Stabia · Referee: Mario Perri
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
- Our model makes Juve Stabia the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
- Juve Stabia line up in a 3-5-1-1, Cesena in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.