Serie B · Regular Season - 5
MantovavPisa
Mantova
Pisa·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (8%), 0-1 (8%). Mantova and Pisa finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Man / Pis | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Mantova down the side and Pisa across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 49%.
What we think
- Pisa38% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Pisa the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 36%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 49% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Pisa a 36% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 35% home · 29% draw · 36% away
Now: 35% home · 29% draw · 36% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Mantova
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Pisa
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MantovaWDWW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Sampdoria 2–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Cesena 1–1(xG 0.4–1.3)
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Empoli 3–1
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Carrarese 2–1
PisaLWWLL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Virtus Entella 1–4
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Juve Stabia 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Catanzaro 2–1
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Padova 0–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Lazio 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Mantova have won 3 of their last 4.
- Mantova have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 2 of Mantova's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Mantova's last 4.
- Mantova kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Pisa have won 2 of their last 5.
- Pisa have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Pisa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Pisa's last 5.
- Pisa kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Mantova
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Pisa
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova · Referee: Simone Galipo
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Mantova vs Pisa?
- Our model makes Pisa the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 36%.
- How many goals are expected in Mantova vs Pisa?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Mantova vs Pisa?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Mantova vs Pisa?
- Mantova line up in a 3-4-2-1, Pisa in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.