Serie B · Regular Season - 5
SampdoriavCatanzaro
Sampdoria
Catanzaro·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Sampdoria and Catanzaro finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Sam / Cat | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sampdoria down the side and Catanzaro across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 28%.
What we think
- Catanzaro41% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Catanzaro the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Sampdoria the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 25%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Sampdoria a 47% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 47% home · 27% draw · 25% away
Now: 47% home · 27% draw · 25% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sampdoria
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
Catanzaro
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SampdoriaLLLDL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Mantova 0–2
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Palermo 1–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Juve Stabia 1–2
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Cesena 1–1
- Sun 4 Jun · A v Napoli 0–2
CatanzaroWLLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Carrarese 1–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Sudtirol 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Pisa 1–2
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Vicenza Virtus 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sampdoria have won 0 of their last 5.
- Sampdoria have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sampdoria's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sampdoria's last 5.
- Sampdoria kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Catanzaro have won 1 of their last 4.
- Catanzaro have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 2 of Catanzaro's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Catanzaro's last 4.
- Catanzaro kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sampdoria
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Catanzaro
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova · Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Sampdoria vs Catanzaro?
- Our model makes Catanzaro the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Sampdoria at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Sampdoria vs Catanzaro?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Catanzaro?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sampdoria vs Catanzaro?
- Sampdoria line up in a 4-3-3, Catanzaro in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.