Liga MX · Apertura - 7
Club AmericavClub Tijuana
Club America
Club Tijuana·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Club America59% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- Yes50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Club America the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 74%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Club America a 64% chance. Our model makes it 59%.
2Market
Open: 64% home · 20% draw · 16% away
Now: 64% home · 20% draw · 16% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Club America
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Club Tijuana
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Club AmericaLWWDW
- Mon 26 Oct · H v CF Pachuca 1–2(xG 2.7–0.5)
- Thu 22 Oct · A v Atlas 5–2
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Leon 5–3
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Monterrey 1–1
- Mon 28 Sep · A v Necaxa 4–2
Club TijuanaWDDDL
- Mon 26 Oct · H v Santos Laguna 4–1(xG 3.3–0.5)
- Thu 22 Oct · A v Toluca 2–2
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Puebla 0–0
- Sat 10 Oct · A v FC Juarez 1–1
- Sat 26 Sep · H v Atlas 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Club America have won 3 of their last 5.
- Club America have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Club America's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Club America's last 5.
- Club America kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Club Tijuana have won 1 of their last 5.
- Club Tijuana have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Club Tijuana's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Club Tijuana's last 5.
- Club Tijuana kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Club America
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Club Tijuana
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio Banorte, Mexico City · Referee: Fernando Hernandez Gomez
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Club America vs Club Tijuana?
- Our model makes Club America the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
- Will both teams score in Club America vs Club Tijuana?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Club America vs Club Tijuana?
- Club America line up in a 4-2-3-1, Club Tijuana in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.