Liga MX · Apertura - 11

Tigres UANLvToluca

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1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Toluca a 41% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

TolucaModel pendingMarket 41%
Toluca:, no forecast published, market 41%

2Market

Open: 33% home · 26% draw · 41% away

Now: 33% home · 26% draw · 41% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home—vs33%
Draw—vs26%
Away—vs41%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs56%
Under 2.5—vs44%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs79%
Under 1.5—vs21%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs34%
Under 3.5—vs66%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs61%
No—vs39%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Tigres UANL

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Toluca

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Tigres UANLWLDDD

  • Sun 27 Sep · H v Puebla 1–0
  • Sat 19 Sep · A v FC Juarez 0–2
  • Sun 13 Sep · A v Monterrey 0–0
  • Sun 6 Sep · H v Necaxa 1–1
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Santos Laguna 0–0(xG 1.3–0.9)

TolucaDLWWW

  • Sat 26 Sep · A v Cruz Azul 3–3
  • Mon 21 Sep · H v Santos Laguna 2–3
  • Wed 16 Sep · A v Puebla 1–0
  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Atlas 5–2
  • Mon 31 Aug · H v FC Juarez 4–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Tigres UANL
  • Tigres UANL have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Tigres UANL have scored in 2 of their last 5.
  • 0 of Tigres UANL's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Tigres UANL's last 5.
  • Tigres UANL kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
Toluca
  • Toluca have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Toluca have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Toluca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Toluca's last 5.
  • Toluca kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Tigres UANL

Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d

Toluca

Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d

Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza

8Red flags