Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 7
Almere City FCvHeracles
Almere City FC
Heracles·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Almere City FC and Heracles finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Alm / Her | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Almere City FC down the side and Heracles across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 49%.
What we think
- Almere City FC46% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 51% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.3 goals.
Our forecast makes Almere City FC the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Heracles the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 30%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 70% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Heracles a 47% chance. Our model makes it 30%.
2Market
Open: 29% home · 23% draw · 48% away
Now: 30% home · 23% draw · 47% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Heracles
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Almere City FC
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Heracles
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Almere City FCWLWWW
- Fri 11 Sep · A v MVV 4–0
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Jong Ajax 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v De Graafschap 4–1
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Vitesse 3–0
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Jong PSV U21 3–1
HeraclesWWWWW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Jong AZ 3–2
- Fri 4 Sep · H v De Graafschap 5–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Eindhoven 3–1
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Jong Utrecht 6–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Den Bosch 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Almere City FC have won 4 of their last 5.
- Almere City FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Almere City FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Almere City FC's last 5.
- Almere City FC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Heracles have won 5 of their last 5.
- Heracles have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Heracles's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Heracles's last 5.
- Heracles kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Almere City FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Heracles
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Yanmar Stadion, Almere · Referee: Alex Bos
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Almere City FC vs Heracles?
- Our model makes Almere City FC the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market instead favours Heracles at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.