Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 9
Den BoschvDordrecht
Den Bosch
Dordrecht·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Den Bosch and Dordrecht finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Den / Dor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Den Bosch down the side and Dordrecht across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Den Bosch45% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Den Bosch the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Den Bosch
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Dordrecht
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Den BoschLWLLL
- Sun 27 Sep · A v De Graafschap 0–1
- Fri 18 Sep · H v Helmond Sport 2–1
- Sun 13 Sep · A v FC Volendam 0–2
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Jong PSV U21 1–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Vitesse 1–4
DordrechtWLLLL
- Fri 25 Sep · H v Almere City FC 3–2
- Fri 18 Sep · A v FC OSS 0–3
- Fri 11 Sep · A v FC Eindhoven 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Jong AZ 3–6
- Fri 28 Aug · A v FC Volendam 1–6
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Den Bosch have won 1 of their last 5.
- Den Bosch have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Den Bosch's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Den Bosch's last 5.
- Den Bosch kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Dordrecht have won 1 of their last 5.
- Dordrecht have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Dordrecht's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Dordrecht's last 5.
- Dordrecht kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Den Bosch
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Dordrecht
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
De Vliert
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
- Our model makes Den Bosch the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.