Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 7
Den BoschvHelmond Sport
Den Bosch
Helmond Sport·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Den Bosch and Helmond Sport finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Den / Hel | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Den Bosch down the side and Helmond Sport across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 49%.
What we think
- Den Bosch49% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 69% against a market price of 51% — 18 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 77% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.3 goals.
- The price has moved 3.3% away from Den Bosch since it opened.
Our forecast makes Den Bosch the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 71% — a 17 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Den Bosch a 53% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 56% home · 22% draw · 22% away
Now: 53% home · 23% draw · 25% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Den Bosch
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Den Bosch
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Helmond Sport
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Den BoschLLLWL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v FC Volendam 0–2
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Jong PSV U21 1–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Vitesse 1–4
- Fri 21 Aug · H v FC Eindhoven 5–2
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Heracles 2–3
Helmond SportWWLDL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Jong PSV U21 3–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v VVV Venlo 4–2
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Jong Ajax 2–3
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Waalwijk 1–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Roda 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Den Bosch have won 1 of their last 5.
- Den Bosch have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Den Bosch's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Den Bosch's last 5.
- Den Bosch kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Helmond Sport have won 2 of their last 5.
- Helmond Sport have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Helmond Sport's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Helmond Sport's last 5.
- Helmond Sport kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Den Bosch
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Helmond Sport
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadion de Vliert, 'S-Hertogenbosch · Referee: Rick Sturm
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
- Our model makes Den Bosch the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- How many goals are expected in Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.