Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 7
FC EindhovenvEmmen
FC Eindhoven
Emmen·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). FC Eindhoven and Emmen finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Emm | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Eindhoven down the side and Emmen across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 46%.
What we think
- FC Eindhoven43% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Eindhoven the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Emmen the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 24%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 67% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Emmen a 53% chance. Our model makes it 33%.
2Market
Open: 31% home · 25% draw · 44% away
Now: 24% home · 22% draw · 53% away
Moved +9pp — the market moved towards Emmen
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Eindhoven
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Emmen
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC EindhovenWDLLL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Dordrecht 2–1
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Jong Utrecht 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Heracles 1–3
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Den Bosch 2–5
- Fri 14 Aug · H v MVV 2–3
EmmenLWLWW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v De Graafschap 1–2
- Fri 4 Sep · H v FC Volendam 5–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v VVV Venlo 0–4
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Jong AZ 3–1
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Jong Ajax 6–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Eindhoven have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC Eindhoven have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Eindhoven's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Eindhoven's last 5.
- FC Eindhoven kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Emmen have won 3 of their last 5.
- Emmen have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Emmen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Emmen's last 5.
- Emmen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Eindhoven
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Emmen
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven · Referee: Martin Perez
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
- Our model makes FC Eindhoven the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market instead favours Emmen at 53%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.