Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 6
FC VolendamvDen Bosch
FC Volendam
Den Bosch·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). FC Volendam and Den Bosch finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Den | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Volendam down the side and Den Bosch across. These 97.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 54%.
What we think
- FC Volendam66% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 63% against a market price of 46% — 17 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.7 goals.
Our forecast makes FC Volendam the most likely of the three results, at 66% (we would not be surprised by anything from 53% to 78%). Most likely is not likely: at 66% this result does not happen 34% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 56%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 75% — a 14 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Volendam a 56% chance. Our model makes it 66%.
2Market
Open: 56% home · 21% draw · 23% away
Now: 56% home · 21% draw · 23% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Volendam
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Den Bosch
Confirmed · 4-3-1-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC VolendamLWLWL
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Emmen 3–5
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Dordrecht 6–1
- Fri 21 Aug · A v MVV 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v FC OSS 3–0
- Mon 10 Aug · A v Jong PSV U21 2–3
Den BoschLLWLD
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Jong PSV U21 1–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Vitesse 1–4
- Fri 21 Aug · H v FC Eindhoven 5–2
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Heracles 2–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Almere City FC 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Volendam have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Volendam have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Volendam's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Volendam's last 5.
- FC Volendam kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Den Bosch have won 1 of their last 5.
- Den Bosch have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Den Bosch's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Den Bosch's last 5.
- Den Bosch kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Volendam
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Den Bosch
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Kras Stadion, Volendam
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
- Our model makes FC Volendam the most likely result at 66%. Most likely is not likely — at 66% it does not happen 34% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 56%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
- FC Volendam line up in a 4-2-3-1, Den Bosch in a 4-3-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.