Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 9
Helmond SportvHeracles
Helmond Sport
Heracles·
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Helmond Sport and Heracles finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Hel / Her | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Helmond Sport down the side and Heracles across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 45%.
What we think
- Heracles51% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Heracles the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 71%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 67% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Heracles a 71% chance. Our model makes it 51%.
2Market
Open: 13% home · 19% draw · 68% away
Now: 12% home · 17% draw · 71% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Heracles
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Helmond Sport
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Heracles
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Helmond SportLLWWL
- Sat 26 Sep · A v MVV 0–2
- Fri 18 Sep · A v Den Bosch 1–2
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Jong PSV U21 3–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v VVV Venlo 4–2
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Jong Ajax 2–3
HeraclesWLWWW
- Sat 26 Sep · H v Vitesse 2–0
- Fri 18 Sep · A v Almere City FC 0–1
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Jong AZ 3–2
- Fri 4 Sep · H v De Graafschap 5–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Eindhoven 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Helmond Sport have won 2 of their last 5.
- Helmond Sport have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Helmond Sport's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Helmond Sport's last 5.
- Helmond Sport kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Heracles have won 4 of their last 5.
- Heracles have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Heracles's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Heracles's last 5.
- Heracles kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Helmond Sport
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Heracles
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Helmond Sport vs Heracles?
- Our model makes Heracles the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 71%.
- How many goals are expected in Helmond Sport vs Heracles?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Heracles?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.