Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 7
Jong AjaxvRoda
Jong Ajax
Roda·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Jong Ajax and Roda finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Jon / Rod | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Jong Ajax down the side and Roda across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 45%.
What we think
- Roda40% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 69% against a market price of 55% — 14 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.8 goals, and 2.2 expected across the 1 we have expected goals for.
- The price has moved 3.8% towards Roda since it opened.
Our forecast makes Roda the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 67% — a 14 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Roda a 48% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 31% home · 24% draw · 45% away
Now: 28% home · 24% draw · 48% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Roda
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Jong Ajax
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Roda
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Jong AjaxLLWDW
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Jong Utrecht 1–6
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Waalwijk 0–2
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Almere City FC 1–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Jong PSV U21 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Helmond Sport 3–2
RodaWDDWW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Vitesse 1–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v MVV 1–1(xG 0.8–1.4)
- Fri 28 Aug · H v NAC Breda 2–2
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Dordrecht 1–0
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Helmond Sport 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Jong Ajax have won 2 of their last 5.
- Jong Ajax have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Jong Ajax's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Jong Ajax's last 5.
- Jong Ajax kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Roda have won 3 of their last 5.
- Roda have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Roda's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Roda's last 5.
- Roda kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Jong Ajax
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Roda
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam · Referee: Stan Teuben
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Jong Ajax vs Roda?
- Our model makes Roda the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.