Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 7
Jong AZvFC Volendam
Jong AZ
FC Volendam·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Jong AZ and FC Volendam finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Jon / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Jong AZ down the side and FC Volendam across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 51%.
What we think
- FC Volendam49% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 49% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.3 goals.
- The price has moved 2.4% away from Jong AZ since it opened.
Our forecast makes FC Volendam the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 71% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Volendam a 43% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 24% draw · 40% away
Now: 33% home · 24% draw · 43% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Jong AZ
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Jong AZ
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
FC Volendam
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Jong AZDLWWL
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Jong PSV U21 1–1
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Heracles 2–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Dordrecht 6–3
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Jong Utrecht 2–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v MVV 1–2
FC VolendamWLWLW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Den Bosch 2–0
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Emmen 3–5
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Dordrecht 6–1
- Fri 21 Aug · A v MVV 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v FC OSS 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Jong AZ have won 2 of their last 5.
- Jong AZ have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Jong AZ's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Jong AZ's last 5.
- Jong AZ kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FC Volendam have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Volendam have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Volendam's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of FC Volendam's last 5.
- FC Volendam kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Jong AZ
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
FC Volendam
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer · Referee: Wouter Wiersma
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Jong AZ vs FC Volendam?
- Our model makes FC Volendam the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Jong AZ vs FC Volendam?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC Volendam?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.