Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 9
Jong PSV U21vJong AZ
Jong PSV U21
Jong AZ·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.1–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (9%), then 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ finish on some other score 76% of the time.
| Jon / Jon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Jong PSV U21 down the side and Jong AZ across. These 97.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 45% against 57%.
What we think
- Jong PSV U2149% · Match result
- Over 2.567% · Goals
- Yes63% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Jong PSV U21 the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Jong AZ the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 67%, against the market’s 76% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Jong AZ a 40% chance. Our model makes it 30%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 23% draw · 41% away
Now: 38% home · 22% draw · 40% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Jong PSV U21
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Jong PSV U21
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Jong AZ
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Jong PSV U21LWDDW
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Helmond Sport 1–3
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Den Bosch 3–1
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Jong Ajax 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Waalwijk 2–2
- Mon 24 Aug · H v FC OSS 1–0
Jong AZLWWLL
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Heracles 2–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Dordrecht 6–3
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Jong Utrecht 2–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v MVV 1–2
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Emmen 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Jong PSV U21 have won 2 of their last 5.
- Jong PSV U21 have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Jong PSV U21's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Jong PSV U21's last 5.
- Jong PSV U21 kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Jong AZ have won 2 of their last 5.
- Jong AZ have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Jong AZ's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Jong AZ's last 5.
- Jong AZ kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Jong PSV U21
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Jong AZ
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
De Herdgang, Eindhoven
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
- Our model makes Jong PSV U21 the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market instead favours Jong AZ at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 67%, and under 2.5 at 33%.
- Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance, against 37% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
- Jong PSV U21 line up in a 4-2-3-1, Jong AZ in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.