Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 9
Jong UtrechtvJong Ajax
Jong Utrecht
Jong Ajax·
6 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Jon / Jon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Jong Utrecht down the side and Jong Ajax across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 48%.
What we think
- Jong Utrecht42% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 68% against a market price of 52% — 16 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 76% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.3 goals.
Our forecast makes Jong Utrecht the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 70% — a 16 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Jong Utrecht a 42% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 24% draw · 34% away
Now: 42% home · 23% draw · 34% away
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Jong Utrecht
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Jong Ajax
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Jong UtrechtWDLLL
- Fri 11 Sep · A v NAC Breda 3–2
- Mon 7 Sep · H v FC Eindhoven 0–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Jong AZ 1–2
- Fri 28 Aug · A v FC OSS 1–2
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Heracles 1–6
Jong AjaxLWDWL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Waalwijk 0–2
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Almere City FC 1–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Jong PSV U21 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Helmond Sport 3–2
- Sat 22 Aug · A v NAC Breda 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Jong Utrecht have won 1 of their last 5.
- Jong Utrecht have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Jong Utrecht's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Jong Utrecht's last 5.
- Jong Utrecht kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Jong Ajax have won 2 of their last 5.
- Jong Ajax have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Jong Ajax's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Jong Ajax's last 5.
- Jong Ajax kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Jong Utrecht
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Jong Ajax
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Utrecht
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
- Our model makes Jong Utrecht the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
- Jong Utrecht line up in a 4-2-3-1, Jong Ajax in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.