Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 7
VitessevJong PSV U21
Vitesse
Jong PSV U21·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (9%), then 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%). Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 finish on some other score 75% of the time.
| Vit / Jon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Vitesse down the side and Jong PSV U21 across. These 97.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Vitesse56% · Match result
- Over 2.566% · Goals
- Yes61% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Vitesse the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 66%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vitesse
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Jong PSV U21
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VitesseLWWLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Roda 0–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v FC OSS 2–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Den Bosch 4–1
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Almere City FC 0–3
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Jong Utrecht 3–1
Jong PSV U21DLWDD
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Jong AZ 1–1
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Helmond Sport 1–3
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Den Bosch 3–1
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Jong Ajax 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Waalwijk 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vitesse have won 3 of their last 5.
- Vitesse have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Vitesse's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Vitesse's last 5.
- Vitesse kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Jong PSV U21 have won 1 of their last 5.
- Jong PSV U21 have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Jong PSV U21's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Jong PSV U21's last 5.
- Jong PSV U21 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Vitesse
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Jong PSV U21
Rest: 5 days · 3 matches in 14d
GelreDome, Arnhem
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
- Our model makes Vitesse the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 66%, and under 2.5 at 34%.
- Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.