Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 9
VVV VenlovRoda
VVV Venlo
Roda·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). VVV Venlo and Roda finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| VVV / Rod | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, VVV Venlo down the side and Roda across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 40%.
What we think
- VVV Venlo40% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 69% against a market price of 60% — 9 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.2 goals, and 2.2 expected across the 1 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes VVV Venlo the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 39%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 62% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives VVV Venlo a 39% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 39% home · 25% draw · 36% away
Now: 39% home · 25% draw · 36% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
VVV Venlo
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Roda
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VVV VenloLWWLW
- Sat 26 Sep · A v FC Volendam 2–3
- Fri 18 Sep · A v Jong Utrecht 3–1
- Fri 11 Sep · H v FC OSS 3–1
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Helmond Sport 2–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Emmen 4–0
RodaWDWDD
- Sat 26 Sep · H v Waalwijk 2–0
- Fri 18 Sep · A v Jong Ajax 0–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Vitesse 1–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v MVV 1–1(xG 0.8–1.4)
- Fri 28 Aug · H v NAC Breda 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- VVV Venlo have won 3 of their last 5.
- VVV Venlo have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of VVV Venlo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of VVV Venlo's last 5.
- VVV Venlo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Roda have won 2 of their last 5.
- Roda have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Roda's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Roda's last 5.
- Roda kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
VVV Venlo
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Roda
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Seacon - De Koel, Venlo
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win VVV Venlo vs Roda?
- Our model makes VVV Venlo the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in VVV Venlo vs Roda?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Roda?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.