Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 7
WaalwijkvMVV
Waalwijk
MVV·
6 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%). Waalwijk and MVV finish on some other score 73% of the time.
| Waa / MVV | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Waalwijk down the side and MVV across. These 96.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 63% against 60%.
What we think
- Waalwijk67% · Match result
- Over 2.563% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Waalwijk the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 54% to 79%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 59%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 63%, which is what the market has it at too (60%).
For comparison, the market gives Waalwijk a 59% chance. Our model makes it 67%.
2Market
Open: 58% home · 22% draw · 20% away
Now: 59% home · 23% draw · 19% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from MVV
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Waalwijk
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
MVV
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
WaalwijkWWDDD
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Jong Ajax 2–0
- Fri 4 Sep · H v NAC Breda 4–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Jong PSV U21 2–2
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Helmond Sport 1–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Dordrecht 2–2
MVVLDWWW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Almere City FC 0–4
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Roda 1–1(xG 1.4–0.8)
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Jong AZ 2–1
- Fri 21 Aug · H v FC Volendam 1–0
- Fri 14 Aug · A v FC Eindhoven 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Waalwijk have won 2 of their last 5.
- Waalwijk have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Waalwijk's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Waalwijk's last 5.
- Waalwijk kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- MVV have won 3 of their last 5.
- MVV have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of MVV's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of MVV's last 5.
- MVV kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Waalwijk
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
MVV
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk · Referee: Richard Martens
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Waalwijk vs MVV?
- Our model makes Waalwijk the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 59%.
- How many goals are expected in Waalwijk vs MVV?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 63%, and under 2.5 at 37%.
- Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs MVV?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.