Eliteserien · Regular Season - 26
Kristiansund BKvValerenga
Kristiansund BK
Valerenga·
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Kristiansund BK and Valerenga finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Kri / Val | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Kristiansund BK down the side and Valerenga across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 49%.
What we think
- Valerenga38% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 64% against a market price of 51% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 4.6 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- 36 players reported unavailable — 18 for Kristiansund BK, 18 for Valerenga.
Our forecast makes Valerenga the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 1 Nov, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 70% — a 11 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Valerenga a 43% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 23% draw · 43% away
Now: 34% home · 23% draw · 43% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Kristiansund BK
Lineup not yet confirmed
- D. Ulvestad — out (Red Card)
- D. Tufekcic — out (Groin Injury)
- W. Igor — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Alvheim — out (Yellow Cards)
- S. Svendsen — out (Injury)
- F. Flex — out (Injury)
- H. Bruseth — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Williamsen — out (Injury)
- Z. Bytyqi — out (Groin Injury)
- I. H. Aalberg — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Munksgaard — out (Foot Injury)
- N. Finset — out (International duty)
- J. Juliusson — out (Red Card)
- T. Svendsen — out (Injury)
- S. Skeide — out (Thigh Injury)
- H. Opsahl — out (Knee Injury)
- N. Odegard — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Isaksen — out (Thigh Injury)
Valerenga
Lineup not yet confirmed
- H. Sjatil — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Lange — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Westergaard — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Rashani — out (Injury)
- K. Finnsson — out (Injury)
- K. Tshiembe — out (Injury)
- F. Ambina — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Nasberg — out (Red Card)
- M. Sjoeng — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Grundetjern — out (Yellow Cards)
- H. Bjordal — out (Red Card)
- F. Thorvaldsen — out (Injury)
- O. T. Holm — out (Injury)
- A. Olsen — out (Yellow Cards)
- O. Saeter — out (Injury)
- S. Jarl — out (Red Card)
- M. Ofkir — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Haren — out (Suspended)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Kristiansund BKWDLLL
- Sun 1 Nov · A v Sarpsborg 08 FF 4–2(xG 2.3–3.6)
- Sun 25 Oct · H v KFUM Oslo 2–2(xG 3.3–2.1)
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Aalesund 1–4
- Sat 10 Oct · A v Bodo/Glimt 1–3
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Rosenborg 1–3
ValerengaWWWLD
- Sun 1 Nov · H v Tromso 4–0(xG 2.4–0.3)
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Bodo/Glimt 1–0
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Brann 3–1
- Mon 12 Oct · A v KFUM Oslo 1–2
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Fredrikstad 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Kristiansund BK have won 1 of their last 5.
- Kristiansund BK have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Kristiansund BK's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Kristiansund BK's last 5.
- Kristiansund BK kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Valerenga have won 3 of their last 5.
- Valerenga have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Valerenga's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Valerenga's last 5.
- Valerenga kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Kristiansund BK W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Valerenga 3–1 Kristiansund BK
7Context
Kristiansund BK
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Valerenga
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansand · Referee: Marius Lien
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
- Our model makes Valerenga the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?
- Kristiansund BK's reported absences and doubts include D. Ulvestad, D. Tufekcic, W. Igor, L. Alvheim and 14 others. Valerenga's include H. Sjatil, C. Lange, M. Westergaard, E. Rashani and 14 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.