Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 9
GKS KatowicevCracovia Krakow
GKS Katowice
Cracovia Krakow·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). GKS Katowice and Cracovia Krakow finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| GKS / Cra | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, GKS Katowice down the side and Cracovia Krakow across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 56%.
What we think
- GKS Katowice47% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes GKS Katowice the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 56% — a 3 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives GKS Katowice a 43% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 26% draw · 31% away
Now: 43% home · 26% draw · 31% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
GKS Katowice
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
Cracovia Krakow
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GKS KatowiceLLWWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Zaglebie Lubin 1–2
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Piast Gliwice 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Gornik Zabrze 3–2
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Wisla Plock 5–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Motor Lublin 0–1
Cracovia KrakowLLLWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Wisla Plock 1–3
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Gornik Zabrze 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Radomiak Radom 1–2
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Wieczysta Kraków 3–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Raków Częstochowa 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- GKS Katowice have won 2 of their last 5.
- GKS Katowice have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of GKS Katowice's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of GKS Katowice's last 5.
- GKS Katowice kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow have won 2 of their last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Cracovia Krakow's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Cracovia Krakow's last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
GKS Katowice
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Cracovia Krakow
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Katowice · Referee: Szymon Marciniak, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win GKS Katowice vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model makes GKS Katowice the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in GKS Katowice vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for GKS Katowice vs Cracovia Krakow?
- GKS Katowice line up in a 3-4-3, Cracovia Krakow in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.