Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 14
JagielloniavGKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
GKS Katowice·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Jag / GKS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Jagiellonia down the side and GKS Katowice across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Jagiellonia51% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Jagiellonia the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Jagiellonia
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
GKS Katowice
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
JagielloniaWWLLL
- Yesterday · A v Wieczysta Kraków 3–1
- Sun 25 Oct · H v Wisla Plock 1–0(xG 1.7–0.9)
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Zaglebie Lubin 0–1
- Sat 10 Oct · H v Gornik Zabrze 1–3
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Legia Warszawa 1–3
GKS KatowiceWLLWW
- Yesterday · H v Widzew Łódź 3–2
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Korona Kielce 0–1
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Pogon Szczecin 0–1
- Mon 12 Oct · H v Wieczysta Kraków 2–1
- Fri 9 Oct · A v Raków Częstochowa 4–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Jagiellonia have won 2 of their last 5.
- Jagiellonia have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Jagiellonia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Jagiellonia's last 5.
- Jagiellonia kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- GKS Katowice have won 3 of their last 5.
- GKS Katowice have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of GKS Katowice's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of GKS Katowice's last 5.
- GKS Katowice kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Jagiellonia
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
GKS Katowice
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Chorten Arena, Bialystok
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice?
- Our model makes Jagiellonia the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.