Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 2
Korona KielcevGornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
Gornik Zabrze·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Kor / Gor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Korona Kielce down the side and Gornik Zabrze across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 73% against 75%.
What we think
- Korona Kielce37% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Korona Kielce the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 43%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Gornik Zabrze the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, which is what the market has it at too (48%).
For comparison, the market gives Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 27% draw · 37% away
Now: 35% home · 29% draw · 36% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Korona Kielce
Confirmed · 4-5-1
No reported absences.
Gornik Zabrze
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Korona KielceWDWDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Slask Wroclaw 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Wisla Krakow 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Wisla Plock 2–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Motor Lublin 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Widzew Łódź 2–1
Gornik ZabrzeWWWLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Lech Poznan 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Cracovia Krakow 1–0
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Raków Częstochowa 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v GKS Katowice 2–3
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Wisla Krakow 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Korona Kielce have won 3 of their last 5.
- Korona Kielce have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Korona Kielce's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Korona Kielce's last 5.
- Korona Kielce kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Gornik Zabrze have won 4 of their last 5.
- Gornik Zabrze have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Gornik Zabrze's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Gornik Zabrze's last 5.
- Gornik Zabrze kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Korona Kielce
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Gornik Zabrze
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Exbud Arena, Kielce · Referee: D. Kos
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze?
- Our model makes Korona Kielce the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market instead favours Gornik Zabrze at 36%.
- How many goals are expected in Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze?
- Korona Kielce line up in a 4-5-1, Gornik Zabrze in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.