Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 9
Korona KielcevRaków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
Raków Częstochowa·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–10.9–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa finish on some other score 61% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Kor / Rak | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Korona Kielce down the side and Raków Częstochowa across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 46% against 54%.
What we think
- Raków Częstochowa43% · Match result
- Under 2.554% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 76% against a market price of 69% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 77% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.0 goals.
Our forecast makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Korona Kielce the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 31%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 46%, against the market’s 54% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Korona Kielce a 42% chance. Our model makes it 27%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 27% draw · 30% away
Now: 42% home · 27% draw · 31% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Raków Częstochowa
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Korona Kielce
Confirmed · 4-5-1
No reported absences.
Raków Częstochowa
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Korona KielceLWDWD
- Tue 15 Sep · H v Gornik Zabrze 0–2
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Slask Wroclaw 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Wisla Krakow 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Wisla Plock 2–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Motor Lublin 1–1
Raków CzęstochowaLWLLL
- Tue 15 Sep · H v Zaglebie Lubin 2–3
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Motor Lublin 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Lech Poznan 0–1
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Gornik Zabrze 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Jagiellonia 2–5
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Korona Kielce have won 2 of their last 5.
- Korona Kielce have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Korona Kielce's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Korona Kielce's last 5.
- Korona Kielce kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Raków Częstochowa have won 1 of their last 5.
- Raków Częstochowa have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Raków Częstochowa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Raków Częstochowa's last 5.
- Raków Częstochowa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Korona Kielce
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Raków Częstochowa
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Exbud Arena, Kielce · Referee: Bartosz Frankowski, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa?
- Our model makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market instead favours Korona Kielce at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 46%, and under 2.5 at 54%.
- Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa?
- Korona Kielce line up in a 4-5-1, Raków Częstochowa in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.