Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 9
Lech PoznanvRadomiak Radom
Lech Poznan
Radomiak Radom·
5 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lec / Rad | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lech Poznan down the side and Radomiak Radom across. These 97.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Lech Poznan67% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Lech Poznan the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 60% to 73%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lech Poznan
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
Radomiak Radom
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Lech PoznanLWWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Gornik Zabrze 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Raków Częstochowa 1–0
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Jagiellonia 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Widzew Łódź 3–2
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Piast Gliwice 3–0
Radomiak RadomLDWDL
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Piast Gliwice 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Widzew Łódź 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Cracovia Krakow 2–1
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Zaglebie Lubin 0–0
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Legia Warszawa 0–5
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lech Poznan have won 4 of their last 5.
- Lech Poznan have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Lech Poznan's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Lech Poznan's last 5.
- Lech Poznan kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Radomiak Radom have won 1 of their last 5.
- Radomiak Radom have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 2 of Radomiak Radom's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Radomiak Radom's last 5.
- Radomiak Radom kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Lech Poznan
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Radomiak Radom
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadion Miejski, Poznan · Referee: Jaroslaw Przybyl, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
- Our model makes Lech Poznan the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
- Lech Poznan line up in a 4-4-2, Radomiak Radom in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.