Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 8
Legia WarszawavWidzew Łódź
Legia Warszawa
Widzew Łódź·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (12%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Leg / Wid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Legia Warszawa down the side and Widzew Łódź across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Legia Warszawa54% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Legia Warszawa the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Legia Warszawa
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
Widzew Łódź
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Legia WarszawaWDDWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Motor Lublin 3–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Slask Wroclaw 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Piast Gliwice 1–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Radomiak Radom 5–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Korona Kielce 1–1
Widzew ŁódźDLDLW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Radomiak Radom 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Lech Poznan 2–3
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Slask Wroclaw 3–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Korona Kielce 1–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Jagiellonia 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Legia Warszawa have won 2 of their last 5.
- Legia Warszawa have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Legia Warszawa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Legia Warszawa's last 5.
- Legia Warszawa kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Widzew Łódź have won 1 of their last 5.
- Widzew Łódź have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Widzew Łódź's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Widzew Łódź's last 5.
- Widzew Łódź kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Legia Warszawa
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Widzew Łódź
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie, Warsaw · Referee: Patryk Gryckiewicz, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
- Our model makes Legia Warszawa the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
- Legia Warszawa line up in a 3-4-3, Widzew Łódź in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.