Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 9
Motor LublinvGornik Zabrze
Motor Lublin
Gornik Zabrze·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Motor Lublin and Gornik Zabrze finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mot / Gor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Motor Lublin down the side and Gornik Zabrze across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 56% against 54%.
What we think
- Gornik Zabrze37% · Match result
- Over 2.556% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Gornik Zabrze the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 45%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, which is what the market has it at too (54%).
For comparison, the market gives Gornik Zabrze a 43% chance. Our model makes it 37%.
2Market
Open: 28% home · 26% draw · 46% away
Now: 30% home · 27% draw · 43% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Gornik Zabrze
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Motor Lublin
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Gornik Zabrze
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Motor LublinLLLDW
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Raków Częstochowa 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Legia Warszawa 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Piast Gliwice 0–2
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Korona Kielce 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v GKS Katowice 1–0
Gornik ZabrzeWWWWL
- Tue 15 Sep · A v Korona Kielce 2–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Lech Poznan 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Cracovia Krakow 1–0
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Raków Częstochowa 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v GKS Katowice 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Motor Lublin have won 1 of their last 5.
- Motor Lublin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Motor Lublin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Motor Lublin's last 5.
- Motor Lublin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Gornik Zabrze have won 4 of their last 5.
- Gornik Zabrze have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Gornik Zabrze's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Gornik Zabrze's last 5.
- Gornik Zabrze kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Motor Lublin
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Gornik Zabrze
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin · Referee: Pawel Malec, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
- Our model makes Gornik Zabrze the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?
- Motor Lublin line up in a 4-1-4-1, Gornik Zabrze in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.