Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 14
Motor LublinvWisla Plock
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mot / Wis | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Motor Lublin down the side and Wisla Plock across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Motor Lublin45% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Motor Lublin the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Motor Lublin
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Wisla Plock
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Motor LublinWDWWD
- Fri 30 Oct · A v Cracovia Krakow 2–1(xG 2.0–1.4)
- Fri 23 Oct · H v Zaglebie Lubin 2–2
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Slask Wroclaw 3–2
- Mon 12 Oct · A v Radomiak Radom 3–2
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Gornik Zabrze 0–0
Wisla PlockDLWLW
- Yesterday · H v Piast Gliwice 2–2
- Sun 25 Oct · A v Jagiellonia 0–1(xG 0.9–1.7)
- Mon 19 Oct · H v Radomiak Radom 1–0
- Fri 9 Oct · A v Wieczysta Kraków 0–3
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Zaglebie Lubin 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Motor Lublin have won 3 of their last 5.
- Motor Lublin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Motor Lublin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Motor Lublin's last 5.
- Motor Lublin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Wisla Plock have won 2 of their last 5.
- Wisla Plock have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Wisla Plock's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Wisla Plock's last 5.
- Wisla Plock kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Motor Lublin
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Wisla Plock
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock?
- Our model makes Motor Lublin the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.