Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 12

Motor LublinvZaglebie Lubin

·

2 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Motor Lublin a 48% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Motor LublinModel pendingMarket 48%
Motor Lublin:, no forecast published, market 48%

Matches we've forecast today

Here are some matches from today's board that have our model forecasts:

View all today's forecasts →

2Market

Open: 48% home · 26% draw · 26% away

Now: 48% home · 26% draw · 25% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs48%
Draw—vs26%
Away—vs25%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs53%
Under 2.5—vs47%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs78%
Under 1.5—vs22%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs32%
Under 3.5—vs68%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs57%
No—vs43%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Motor Lublin

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Zaglebie Lubin

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Motor LublinWWDLL

  • Sat 17 Oct · H v Slask Wroclaw 3–2
  • Mon 12 Oct · A v Radomiak Radom 3–2
  • Sat 19 Sep · H v Gornik Zabrze 0–0
  • Fri 11 Sep · A v Raków Częstochowa 1–2
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Legia Warszawa 2–3

Zaglebie LubinWLLWW

  • Sun 18 Oct · H v Jagiellonia 1–0
  • Sat 10 Oct · A v Cracovia Krakow 1–3
  • Sun 20 Sep · H v Wisla Plock 0–2
  • Tue 15 Sep · A v Raków Częstochowa 3–2
  • Sat 12 Sep · H v GKS Katowice 2–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Motor Lublin
  • Motor Lublin have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Motor Lublin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Motor Lublin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Motor Lublin's last 5.
  • Motor Lublin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Zaglebie Lubin
  • Zaglebie Lubin have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Zaglebie Lubin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Zaglebie Lubin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Zaglebie Lubin's last 5.
  • Zaglebie Lubin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Motor Lublin

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Zaglebie Lubin

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin · Referee: Mateusz Jenda, Poland

8Red flags