Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 8
Pogon SzczecinvWieczysta Kraków
Pogon Szczecin
Wieczysta Kraków·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Pog / Wie | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Pogon Szczecin down the side and Wieczysta Kraków across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Pogon Szczecin61% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Pogon Szczecin the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Pogon Szczecin
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Wieczysta Kraków
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Pogon SzczecinDDDWW
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Wisla Plock 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Zaglebie Lubin 0–0
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Wisla Krakow 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Motor Lublin 3–1
- Mon 3 Aug · A v Cracovia Krakow 2–0
Wieczysta KrakówDLLWL
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Zaglebie Lubin 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Wisla Krakow 0–2
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Cracovia Krakow 2–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Piast Gliwice 4–3
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Lech Poznan 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Pogon Szczecin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Pogon Szczecin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Pogon Szczecin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Pogon Szczecin's last 5.
- Pogon Szczecin kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków have won 1 of their last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Wieczysta Kraków's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Wieczysta Kraków's last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Pogon Szczecin
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Wieczysta Kraków
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model makes Pogon Szczecin the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.