Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 8
Pogon SzczecinvWieczysta Kraków
Pogon Szczecin
Wieczysta Kraków·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Pog / Wie | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Pogon Szczecin down the side and Wieczysta Kraków across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 58%.
What we think
- Pogon Szczecin61% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Pogon Szczecin
Best price 2.09 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 61% against a market price of 46% — 15 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Our forecast makes Pogon Szczecin the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 58% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Pogon Szczecin a 46% chance. Our model makes it 61%.
2Market
Open: 46% home · 26% draw · 28% away
Now: 46% home · 26% draw · 28% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Pogon Szczecin
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Wieczysta Kraków
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Pogon SzczecinDDDWW
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Wisla Plock 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Zaglebie Lubin 0–0
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Wisla Krakow 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Motor Lublin 3–1
- Mon 3 Aug · A v Cracovia Krakow 2–0
Wieczysta KrakówDLLWL
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Zaglebie Lubin 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Wisla Krakow 0–2
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Cracovia Krakow 2–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Piast Gliwice 4–3
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Lech Poznan 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Pogon Szczecin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Pogon Szczecin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Pogon Szczecin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Pogon Szczecin's last 5.
- Pogon Szczecin kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków have won 1 of their last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Wieczysta Kraków's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Wieczysta Kraków's last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Pogon Szczecin
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Wieczysta Kraków
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin · Referee: Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model makes Pogon Szczecin the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- How many goals are expected in Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Pogon Szczecin line up in a 4-2-3-1, Wieczysta Kraków in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.