Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 8
Radomiak RadomvPiast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Piast Gliwice·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Rad / Pia | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Radomiak Radom down the side and Piast Gliwice across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 35%.
What we think
- Radomiak Radom39% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 73% against a market price of 65% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.9 goals.
Our forecast makes Radomiak Radom the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 57% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Radomiak Radom a 40% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 27% draw · 33% away
Now: 40% home · 26% draw · 34% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Piast Gliwice
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Radomiak Radom
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Piast Gliwice
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Radomiak RadomDWDLL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Widzew Łódź 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Cracovia Krakow 2–1
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Zaglebie Lubin 0–0
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Legia Warszawa 0–5
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Gornik Zabrze 1–3
Piast GliwiceWWDLL
- Fri 4 Sep · H v GKS Katowice 3–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Motor Lublin 2–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Legia Warszawa 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Wieczysta Kraków 3–4
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Lech Poznan 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Radomiak Radom have won 1 of their last 5.
- Radomiak Radom have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Radomiak Radom's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Radomiak Radom's last 5.
- Radomiak Radom kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Piast Gliwice have won 2 of their last 5.
- Piast Gliwice have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Piast Gliwice's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Piast Gliwice's last 5.
- Piast Gliwice kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Radomiak Radom
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Piast Gliwice
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Radom · Referee: Tomasz Marciniak, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
- Our model makes Radomiak Radom the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
- Radomiak Radom line up in a 4-1-4-1, Piast Gliwice in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.