Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 3
Raków CzęstochowavZaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
Zaglebie Lubin·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin finish on some other score 63% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rak / Zag | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Raków Częstochowa down the side and Zaglebie Lubin across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 51% against 53%.
What we think
- Raków Częstochowa63% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Raków Częstochowa
Best price 2.00 at BetanoThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 63% against a market price of 49% — 14 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 83% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- The price has moved 3.3% away from Raków Częstochowa since it opened.
Our forecast makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 56% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, which is what the market has it at too (53%).
For comparison, the market gives Raków Częstochowa a 49% chance. Our model makes it 63%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 25% draw · 22% away
Now: 49% home · 26% draw · 25% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Raków Częstochowa
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Raków Częstochowa
Confirmed · 3-5-2
No reported absences.
Zaglebie Lubin
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Raków CzęstochowaWLLLL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Motor Lublin 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Lech Poznan 0–1
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Gornik Zabrze 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Jagiellonia 2–5
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Cracovia Krakow 1–2
Zaglebie LubinWDDDW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v GKS Katowice 2–1
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Wieczysta Kraków 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Pogon Szczecin 0–0
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Radomiak Radom 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Slask Wroclaw 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Raków Częstochowa have won 1 of their last 5.
- Raków Częstochowa have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Raków Częstochowa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Raków Częstochowa's last 5.
- Raków Częstochowa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Zaglebie Lubin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Zaglebie Lubin have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Zaglebie Lubin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Zaglebie Lubin's last 5.
- Zaglebie Lubin kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Raków Częstochowa
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Zaglebie Lubin
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Czestochowa · Referee: Daniel Stefanski, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
- Our model makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
- Raków Częstochowa line up in a 3-5-2, Zaglebie Lubin in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.