Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 9
Widzew ŁódźvWieczysta Kraków
Widzew Łódź
Wieczysta Kraków·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (10%). Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Wid / Wie | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Widzew Łódź down the side and Wieczysta Kraków across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 49% against 61%.
What we think
- Widzew Łódź47% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 73% against a market price of 62% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.4 goals.
Our forecast makes Widzew Łódź the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 61% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Widzew Łódź a 51% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 24% draw · 26% away
Now: 51% home · 24% draw · 25% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Widzew Łódź
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Widzew Łódź
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
Wieczysta Kraków
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Widzew ŁódźDDLDL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Legia Warszawa 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Radomiak Radom 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Lech Poznan 2–3
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Slask Wroclaw 3–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Korona Kielce 1–2
Wieczysta KrakówLDLLW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Pogon Szczecin 0–2
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Zaglebie Lubin 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Wisla Krakow 0–2
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Cracovia Krakow 2–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Piast Gliwice 4–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Widzew Łódź have won 0 of their last 5.
- Widzew Łódź have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Widzew Łódź's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Widzew Łódź's last 5.
- Widzew Łódź kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków have won 1 of their last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Wieczysta Kraków's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Wieczysta Kraków's last 5.
- Wieczysta Kraków kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Widzew Łódź
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Wieczysta Kraków
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadion Widzewa Łódź, Lodz · Referee: M. Piszczelok
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model makes Widzew Łódź the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- How many goals are expected in Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
- Widzew Łódź line up in a 4-3-3, Wieczysta Kraków in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.